Donald Trump will be sworn-in as the 45th US president on Jan 20. Will US policy on Afghanistan change?
The incoming Trump administration is expected to honour US commitment on military assistance to Afghanistan.
Hamidullah Rasa, expert on international politics, says Trump has not revealed his mind on how he intends to defeat terrorism in Afghanistan, “but he has kept his foreign policy door open on the long term presence of American forces in Afghanistan and this is widely known inside the Republican Party.”
This has not always been his position. On Twitter in 2013, Trump called for the exit of US forces from Afghanistan, and said he regretted that billions of dollars (US) were spent on Afghanistan when it could have been spent to “make America great again” – his campaign slogan.
In October 2015, he was to change his position, and support President Barack Obama’s decision to keep 9,800 service members in Afghanistan. He wanted the US military to steer clear of institution-building and focus on dealing with security. Experts here believe this may be the key to the incoming US government’s plans for Afghanistan. The focus could be elimination of terrorism – Trump’s poll promise to decisively counter terrorist groups like ISIS.
Zalmay Khalilzad, a former Afghan ambassador to the US, Iraq and the UN says, “Trump still has not clearly said anything on Afghanistan but he has had clear viewpoints on terrorism and extremism. So, I think there is much chance of (his) helping and cooperating (with) Afghanistan.”
Afghan think-tanks and commentators have discussed Trump’s phone call to President Ashraf Ghani threadbare.
It would be safe to guess that there would be continuity in the new US administration’s strategy regarding issues such as administrative corruption, transparency, development and stability because the general policy of the White House is that all countries it financially and militarily supports should rein in corruption and drug trafficking.
Second guessing
Husain Ayubi, political analyst-and-journalist, believes the Trump administration will “support” the government of national unity lest Washington’s rival super powers, notably Russia and China, step into the vacuum the US leaves in Afghanistan. The White House has in the past taken on Pakistan, Iran, Russia and other powers on the issue of support to ISIS, al-Qaida and Taleban. There is no doubt in Kabul that counter-terrorism initiatives would be implemented through the Afghan government but what the new administration’s position on countries in the neighbourhood, particularly Pakistan, is not obvious.
Various possible scenarios are under discussion.
Mohammad Wayezi, journalist and analyst, sees at least three options. “The first theory is that the US, turning the pressure on countries that support terrorism, would continue to seriously counter terrorist activity in Afghanistan, and as a result the role of Saudi Arabia and Pakistan (in supporting terrorism) could decrease. The second theory would entail letting the big powers in the region, such as Russia, Iran and India, have a larger role in Afghanistan with Washington scaling down responsibilities. The third would involve the US trying to eliminate ISIS and terrorism at the regional and global level. This would mean the US will be fully behind the government in countering terrorism and extremism.”
Political analyst Naweed Elham urges the government to be watchful. “The likelihood of agreement among the Taleban and Russia, Iran, China and Pakistan could be damaging to Afghans in areas of concern like human rights, women’s rights, education and health care.” He appeals to the US to “stay involved in Afghanistan and make sure that the achievements (secured so far) should not be lost.”
