General John Nicholson, commander of US forces in Afghanistan, testified at a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on US-led military operations in Afghanistan, on Feb 9. “I believe we’re in a stalemate,” he said.
The dangerousness of the situation in Afghanistan, rise in civilian and military casualties, the emergence of new groups are some of the issues the general touched upon while presenting the challenges facing the military.
He also briefed the Senate committee led by John McCain about the influence of external players on Afghanistan: chiefly Russia, Pakistan, and Iran. These concerns have been taken to Washington by experts and Afghan statesmen in the past but unfortunately the US and its western allies were either unwilling to hear or did not take it very seriously.
Political observers here, however, expect more serious and clearer strategies from the new US President Donald Trump on terrorism.
They want to see a strengthening of defensive and intelligence power –what General Nicholson called “offensive capability’ which could help break the stalemate. “”In my train-advise-assist mission, however, we have a shortfall of a few thousand. And this is in the NATO train-advise-assist mission, so this could come from the U.S. and its allies,” said the general.
Afghan experts consider as the first option the strengthening of Afghan military power as well as establishment of strong bases for safeguarding the borders and preventing infiltration of extremist forces and trafficking.
But the strengthening of Afghan military power does not mean an increase in foreign security forces in the country, says military expert Ahmad Ahmadyar. This was not an effective strategy, he adds. “Thousands of foreign troops were in Afghanistan for nearly one and a half decades but it did not result in stability and security in Afghanistan,” he says.
Begging aid
Other experts see the lack of specific support and budget within the framework of the agreement as causes for “shakiness in defence capability” and continuous instability in Afghanistan.
Ali Buniadi, analyst and journalist says, “The level of annual aid from the US and NATO has not been specified in the security agreement and Afghanistan has to stretch its hands to international supporters at any point of time through a formal demand; in principle, if Afghanistan asks for financial support what is the quantum (the country can get without begging) and how to gauge if the need will be met? he says. “Why is financial support specified for Pakistan and Egypt!” he wonders.
This is also the view of political analyst Wahid Muzhda, formerly with the Taleban. “There is speculation that a secret agreement was struck between US and Pakistan to bring down the Taleban before the US attack on Afghanistan based on which Islamabad has got a commitment from Washington that Afghan forces should be supported in limits that can counter only internal insurgencies that threaten others,” he says.
Testifying before the senate committee, US General Nicholson said Russia’s involvement in Afghanistan “has become more difficult” this year. He accused Russia of “publicly” legitimising the Taleban. “The narrative that they (Russia) promote is that the Taleban are fighting Islamic State and the Afghan government is not fighting Islamic State…This is a false narrative. The Afghan government, along with US counterterrorism forces, is successfully fighting against Islamic State in Afghanistan.”
On Pakistan, he was clear the US should work together with Islamabad. He welcomed the operation it has launched in Waziristan against terrorist groups but told there are also shelters in Quetta, Balochistan. Taleban leaders are sheltered there while the Haqqani Network is in many parts of Pakistan.
