The Taleban successfully penetrated layers of security rings around the Afghan capital to twice attack Parliament on Jan 10 killing at least 34 people and injuring scores of others.
Elsewhere, on the same day, there were more deaths including in the guesthouse of the Kandahar governor. Both the governor and the ambassador of the United Arab Emirates who he was holding a meeting with were injured.
While the Taleban were quick to claim responsibility for the suicide bombing in Kabul, no one has owned up to the Kandahar bombing.
The impunity with which the Taleban have acted in less than 12 hours has shaken public confidence.
Security forces have launched winter operations code-named Shafaq against Taleban in the restive provinces. There were hopes that the operations despite the onset of winter would eliminate “the nests, supply chains and financial sources of the armed opponents”.
Mohammad Radmanesh, deputy spokesperson in the Ministry of Defence said, “The operations would be launched in 13 provinces and the Taleban would also continue the war in some parts of the country against the Afghan forces.” But the attacks in Kabul and Kandahar were on civilians.
Already questions were raised about the effectiveness of the operations and its results; the circumstances of implementation, prevention of civilian losses, and the manner of coordination with the newly reintroduced foreign forces in the southern provinces. The main concern is whether the winter operation will bring stability in the coming spring? Moreover, most people want to know how safety of civilians would be guaranteed during the operations and what is the aim of bringing in NATO troops in provinces like Helmand and Farah and how would they help the Afghan forces?
Mohayudin Hayati who travels frequently from Kabul to Herat on business “hopes” the winter operations will put the Afghan forces in a better position. “I hope the winter operation takes away the previous courage from the armed opponents so that they cannot continue their attacks on the highways.”
Security analysts believe the launching of winter operations by Afghan forces is the most effective strategy to weaken and crush the armed opponents. Jawed Kohistani, military expert says, “If the government does not launch winter operations, 2017 would be bloodier.”
The undeclared ceasefire in the winter months every year was used by the Taleban to rest and stock up to return in spring with greater violence. Belqis Roshan, a former Senate member, said most Taleban would go to Pakistan or be found resting at home in the winter months.
Attacking force
Defence strategists were of the opinion Operation Shafaq would turn the Afghan military into an attacking and not defending force. “The Afghan security forces succeed whenever they come out from defensive position to attacking position. The winter operation can be a positive step as the security forces have been defensive for one year,” says Kohistani.
By the change in tactics, he believes, “security forces would be able to get more success and repel the attacks in provinces that are under risk such as Helmand, Uruzgan, Kunduz and Baghlan.” By keeping up pressure on insurgents, the threats on the highways and in Kunduz may reduce.
Belqis Roshan calls for greater coordination among leaders of the national unity government. She fears it could be detrimental to the success of Operation Shafaq, and the price would be paid by civilians.
Security expert Abdul Ahmad Ahmadyar advises the government to equip the military, set clear goals for fighting, and accurately map the situation on the ground to prevent civilian deaths in air strikes by NATO forces.
