Lull in the fighting

Every year, at the start of the cold season, rumours fly about peace efforts. But at the end of winter, with the arrival of spring, there is firing again in the battle fields.Aqela has taught at a Kabul school for 15 years. “When autumn gets colder and winter advances we hear rumours about the coming of peace. We hear bilateral and multilateral meetings have taken place in Qatar, London, Pakistan. These hopes stay alive up to spring when the guns blaze once more throughout the country,” Aqela says.With the arrival of yet another autumn there are reports of Taleban representatives in Islamabad to save the peace talks. In the wake of the visit, Sartaj Aziz, advisor on foreign affairs to the Pakistan prime minister said, “No one has the ability to own Afghanistan, then it is better that the armed opponents advance peace instead the war.”Pakistani authorities have warned the Taleban to either join the peace process or leave the country. Mohammad Qarabagi, analyst and political expert said, “We know well there is pressure to act on Pakistan from the region and internationally. It is necessary that the current situation of Pakistan is managed in a manner that it advances the policy of compromise and unanimity in the region instead of increasing the threats. Pakistan has to try to decrease tensions and strengthen its positive position.”What is important is that the Afghan government should not be deceived by the peace moves of Taleban in the winter season or there will be serious setbacks in the spring and summer. The reality is that the dangers we have seen unfolding in provinces like Helmand, Kunduz and Ghazni this year were clear last winter. The provinces were overrun by anti-government insurgents. Neither are reports of Taleban on the highways to the north specifically the road leading to Kunduz. Precautionary arrangements should have been planned even in the last cold season.General Ahmad Ahmadyar, security specialist, blames the political leadership for the absence of coherent policies. “The problem is that our statesmen don’t follow the main points of the problem rather they always dance to the political music of others. They rarely take precautions, and old and new problems persist side-by-side in countering terrorism, and no attention is paid.”Moreover, the government has always only reacted to the situation created from across the border. War and peace are not in its control. The starters of the process have always been those that are not in the government but against it.Experts believe the armed opponents have year after year made use of the let-up in fighting during the cold season to reequip and refresh military ability. The government should similarly use the opportunity. Jamila Farkhar, a civil society activist believes, “Afghanistan has always followed the policy of others and they (expatriates) turn the Afghan statesmen around their fingers as they wish.”Winter reviewAfghan observers recommend the winter should be a time for the government to review military strategy and policies. Asadullah Sadaqat, a lecturer in Gawharshad private university says the government has to also build up intelligence gathering. Samia, a Kabul resident believes it is a shame that the security forces are unaware of the presence of armed opponents in so-called secure areas. Time and again they have disregarded the warnings from non-government organisations and the public. “Security institutions live in unawareness and irresponsibility,” she says. The government should never ignore possibilities of participation in peace talks. When armed opponents take a stand, the government has the responsibility to react.