Two ambitious projects and a trade pact in the pipeline could turn the Afghanistan story into gold.
CASA-1000, referred to here as CASA Yak Hazar or the Central Asia and South Asia Regional Energy and Trade project, proposes to reach 1000 MW of electricity from
Two ambitious projects and a trade pact in the pipeline could turn the Afghanistan story into gold.
CASA-1000, referred to here as CASA Yak Hazar or the Central Asia and South Asia Regional Energy and Trade project, proposes to reach 1000 MW of electricity from Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan (its share is 30 percent of the power) through a 750-km transmission line to Pakistan.
TAPI, an acronym of the first alphabet in the names of the countries involved, will carry natural gas-pipeline from gas fields in Turkmenistan through Afghanistan to Pakistan and India.
Energy-starved Afghanistan has been assured 300 MW of electricity in return for the first project, and the second could yield an estimated 400 million USD annually, and thousands of jobs.
However, security and environmental hurdles, both domestic and regional, could derail both. “To get the projects off the ground are both challenging and an opportunity,” observes Sayed Masoud, lecturer in the economics faculty of Kabul University.
Tajik energy
The 6.5 billion USD CASA-1000 project that envisages development of the Rogun hydropower station in Tajikistan was signed last December. The World Bank is the project secretariat, and bankrolling it are the Bank, US, European Union, Britain and the Islamic Development Bank. The project would become functional by 2018.
According to information from Breshna, the public electricity company, the transmission line would enter Kabul through the Salang Pass and extend to Kandahar before crossing into Pakistan. Afghanistan’s share of electricity would be distributed in Maidan Wardak, Ghazni, Zabul, Logar, Khost and Gardez city. Afghanistan can gain from both additional electricity and transit fees.
The government has preferred not to invest in dams for hydroelectricity but has been buying cheaper power from its energy-surplus neighbours. Big cities here including Kabul, Herat, Mazar-e-Sharif and Kunduz get electricity from the grid, while most parts of the country are in darkness.
According to Mirwais Alami, the head of Breshna, company says, CASA-1000 would light up more areas.
But as always, there are two views on where the transmission lines should pass through. Members of Parliament (MPs) from Bamyan argue that their province would be less risky than Salang. Breshna officials think any attempt to change the route will only delay the project; electricity would be supplied through a substation in Parwan and transferred via Ghorband district to Bamyan.
More than 70 avalanches and heavy snowfall in many parts of the northern provinces, end-February, killed people and brought down electricity transmission lines from Uzbekistan passing through the Salang Pass, throwing Kabul in darkness for days.
CASA-1000 may be delayed by objections raised by Uzbekistan over Tajikistan’s failure to share a mandatory Transboundary Environmental Impact Assessment (TEIA) report for the development of the Rogun dam. The TEIA is a requirement around the world for projects, especially hydropower that could affect environment in downstream areas, in this case Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. The Rogun and other hydropower projects, which would provide electricity for the CASA-1000, are located on trans-boundary rivers of Central Asia and so far “the TEIA of these projects are neither shared nor cleared by lower riparian countries”, Uzbekistan stated in a “letter of disapproval” handed over to Pakistan last month, according to a report in the Pakistani daily Dawn, on March 13.
Trilateral ties
Meanwhile there is slow but steady progress on a trilateral trade agreement involving Afghanistan, Pakistan and Tajikistan. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ website states the second review meeting on the draft of the pact was held in Dushanbe city on March 10 and 11. Officials from the three countries again met in Dushanbe on April 11 where they finalised the draft with the signing ceremony expected to be held in Kabul.
The agreement aims to boost the volume of trade between the three countries. However, there is some scepticism over whether it would benefit Afghanistan as much as Pakistan. Afghan traders have repeatedly complained about problems in using the trade agreement with Pakistan to access India.
“Pakistan is trying to open the corridors of central Asia, and in different ways it has closed its dry ports to Afghan trucks. Now Afghanistan can assert similar pressure on Pakistan by blocking ports of Torkham, Sherkhan and Spin Boldak port,” says Sayed Masoud of Kabul University.
Meanwhile, Musafer Quqandi, the spokesperson of Ministry of Commerce and Industries, says the proposed trilateral agreement gives Afghanistan a chance to connect with central Asia. “Trucks from Pakistan would cross into Tajikistan and re-enter through Afghanistan. So would trucks from Afghanistan be able to travel all over Tajikistan and Pakistan,” he says.
TAPI
Hopes are pinned on TAPI, the ambitious multi-partner pipeline project, as the economic link to the region, according to Mines and Minerals Minister Daud Shah Saba.
Three countries have bid to become the commercial consortium leader for financing the project – one each from France, Russia and China. The bids will be discussed at the upcoming Kabul meeting of the consortium of four state-owned companies: Turkmengas, Afghan Gas Enterprise, Inter State Gas Systems (Pakistan), and GAIL (India) Ltd. They are equal partners in TAPI that will build, own and operate the planned 1,800-km pipeline.
“The French-company Total, ARTI Global of Russia, and China National Petroleum Corporation are participating in the bid in two months in Kabul,” the minister said. “I hope the decision would be positive.”
Follow TKG on Twitter & Facebook
