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Shadow of 2014 casts a pall of gloom

Growing unease over the government’s ability to stop the country’s slide into civil war. Bomb blasts in Nimruz, Kunduz and Badakhshan before the Eid-ul-Fitr holidays killed Growing unease over the government’s ability to stop the country’s slide into civil war. A report by Nematullah TaneenBomb blasts in Nimruz, Kunduz and Badakhshan before the Eid-ul-Fitr holidays […]

نویسنده: TKG
27 Aug 2012
Shadow of 2014 casts a pall of gloom

Growing unease over the government’s ability to stop the country’s slide into civil war.
Bomb blasts in Nimruz, Kunduz and Badakhshan before the Eid-ul-Fitr holidays killed
Growing unease over the government’s ability to stop the country’s slide into civil war. A report by Nematullah Taneen
Bomb blasts in Nimruz, Kunduz and Badakhshan before the Eid-ul-Fitr holidays killed as many as 49 civilians and injured more than a hundred people. The series of attacks in Zaranj, the capital of Nimruz, and Dasht-e-Archi district of Kunduz were both in bazaars. In Badakhshan, a district governor and three policemen were killed in a Taleban ambush.
President Hamid Karzai, who was travelling in Saudi Arabia on the day of the attacks, condemned the Aug 14 killing of innocent civilians in the holy month of Ramadan. The dozens of deaths made it the deadliest day for civilians this year. The Taleban have not claimed responsibility.
Concerns about security are growing as Afghans take over security responsibility from foreign troops on the ground. High-ranking NATO officials have assured the government of continued support but with every suicide bombing there is growing anxiety that Afghanistan may be left with a war it did not start.
Mohammad Ishaq, a bookseller in Kart-e-Sea, Kabul, said the international forces could not be trusted to keep their promise. “How can we believe the US will help when it pulls out? It has not made any fundamental changein more than a decade.”
He says living conditions have only worsened. “The rich have grown richer, and the poor have become poorer. How can we believe that our situation will improve?” Ishaq asks.

Afghan-led growth
EngineerGhafar Dawlatzai, a student of Kabul Polytechnic University, appeals to people to not wait any more for “foreigners” to work miracles and rebuild the country. “The donor countries will return to their country one day. Afghanistan is ours, we should build and defend it.” He believes things will only worsen post-2014. “After 2014, there is no remedy. We will burn. But if we don’t rebuild others will not do it for us.”
Optimistic political analysts are counting on the government’s strategic agreements with countries like the US to bail out Afghanistan. Ghulam Jailani Zwak, a political analyst, says the treaties are an assurance of continued support for Afghan security forces who have the ability to handle threats to internal security.
In his opinion Afghanistan’s neighbours are the “main problems”. “Neighbouring countries that have always interfered are the main problems. But we are not alone, other countries will support us,” he said without identifying countries by name.
Ground reality
How come development has not kept pace with the millions of dollars spent by Afghanistan’s donors?
Political analyst Zwak blames the donors. “It is a fact the US does not want the rehabilitation of Afghanistan. This is one of the peculiarities of developed countries – to keep poor countries poor.”
He thinks Afghanistan stands a better chance when foreign donors reduce aid after 2014. The country will have to rely on its own natural resources, he says. The government will have to closely monitor the process “otherwise there is the possibility of conflict”, he warned.
But Shah Husain Mutazawi, a writer and journalist, says funds have never been the reason for Afghanistan’s under-development. Every year there has been uproar over the failure to spend allocated money, he adds. The main problem, according to him, is poor capacity in government departments and weak management.It can be solved by recruiting trained professionals, he advises.
Mutazawi is sure the international community will not renege on commitments made to the country. “The international community is committed to eliminating terrorism in Afghanistan and in the world. They don’t want to be witness to the assassination of their people. Afghanistan was promised long-term aid at the Tokyo conference.”

Dull prospects
Meanwhile, the shadow of 2014 has hurt big and small business. Khan Jan Alokozai, deputy head of the Afghan Chamber of Commerce says, “No investment has taken place since two years in the country. Roughly 60 percent of factories have shut. The investors are escaping (abroad).”
Hekmatullah Faizi,a property dealer who has an office in the upmarket Kart-e-Seaarea of Kabul, points to his many vacant properties. “Nobody asks to rent. People don’t have the ability to rent or to buy. Those who had the money have left the country.”
He calculates there has been a 50 percent decline in his business over the last two years. “We were making between 10,000-20,000 USD every month two years back. Now we can’t even meet our daily expense.”
The reason, he believes, is worries that Afghanistan is careening towards a return to civil war when foreign troops exit in 2014.

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