Security in focus

Forecasts for the security situation in 2016 are grim. Has faith in the national army’s capability to ward off challenges weakened?

From confidential reports that have been accessed by the media, NATO has, in view of the deteriorating security situation, reviewed a previous decision on the ability of Afghan forces.

Forecasts for the security situation in 2016 are grim. Has faith in the national army’s capability to ward off challenges weakened?

From confidential reports that have been accessed by the media, NATO has, in view of the deteriorating security situation, reviewed a previous decision on the ability of Afghan forces. Der Spiegel, the widely-read German magazine, quotes from a “secret” NATO document saying the ANA is hardly ready to launch operations. Only one of its 101 infantry units has been assessed as ready for combat. In 10 units, there are soldiers who have never seen the battlefield.

In addition, the Pentagon has recently announced that Afghan security forces are still unable to lead the operations alone. Pentagon spokesperson has cited the continuing winter attacks by the Taleban as evidence of their strength.

US military officials are also talking about increased casualties and desertion in the ranks of ANA. The two together, according to reports, adds up to a third of the strength of the Afghan military.

Military affairs expert Mohammad Zarif Naseri rebuts these views. He argues that the US-led NATO with 160,000 troops has left the fighting to the “scanty forces” of the ANA. “The Afghan forces counter the insurgents without any active cooperation from foreign troops but the fact that they cannot end the war is due to lack of weapons, soldiers, the widening theatre of war, nonexistence of specified border and the  proxy war that has been going on for 40 years,” says Naseri.

In his opinion, while the war intensified last year, Afghan forces were able to counter anti-government fighters and even take back areas that had fallen like Kunduz city.

On the fighting continuing even in the winter, according to Naseri, it is so since Afghanistan has areas that are in the mountains and on the plains. “If the armed opponents want to continue the war, they go from cold climate areas to warm areas. In addition, the fighting has ratcheted up because of the on-going four-sided talks on peace. Whenever there has been talk on talks, the government’s opponents try to assert their strength in the battle field in order to secure their position on the negotiating table,” Naseri reasons.

Talks are scheduled to be held on Jan 21 in Islamabad between representatives of Afghanistan, Pakistan, US and China.

Afghanistan’s lawmakers summoned Masoom Stanekzai, acting defence minister, Nurulhaq Olomi, minister of interior affairs and Masaud Andarabi, acting director of National Directorate of Security to explain strategies to counter Taleban and Daesh, fighters aligned to the Islamic State (ISIS). However, the interaction did not satisfy Members of Parliament, speaker Abdul Rauf Ibrahimi said. He said “security authorities should prepare a very exact and practical strategy so that we can hit the enemy and recapture areas that are under their control.”

Andarabi identified four locations of concern: Kabul, Nangarhar, Helmand and Kunduz. “Taleban intends to continue their attacks, and the security forces should make plans for the coming four months based on the experiences gotten within past four months,” he told Parliament.

Since the beginning of 2016, Kabul has been witness to many suicide attacks. Each time, civilians have borne the brunt. Last October, the city of Kunduz fell to the Taleban. It took security forces two weeks to oust the Taleban. Hamdullah Daneshi, acting governor of Kunduz told Killid while there was no coordination between security institutions, that is no longer the situation. Two months ago, President Ashraf Ghani on a visit to Kunduz promised to continue clearing operations until the last Taleban is flushed out. He elevated three areas under Taleban control Aqtash in Khan Abad district, Kalbad in Imam Saheb district and Gortepa, a suburb of Kunduz city into independent districts. The clearing operations have not ended, says Khosh Mohammad Nasratyar, a member of Kunduz provincial council.

Nangarhar

Daesh fighters have been very active in 10 districts of the province, according to locals. Abdul Rahman Mawen, a resident of Nangarhar says, “ISIS is widening its influence but its activities are felt more in the south-west of Nangarhar.”

Members of the Nangarhar provincial council insist Daesh fighters are restricted to five of the 21 districts. Ahmad Ali Hazrat, chief of the council, wants the central government to send additional forces to the province. Meanwhile, security forces say Daesh fighters are a problem in only three districts. Provincial police chief Fazel Ahmad Sherzad says, “ISIS has started its activity in districts of Achin, Dehbala and Chaparhar where they are fighting Taleban.”

Helmand

Security situation in the province’s Sangeen district worsened in 2015 and it has now fallen to the Taleban. Strong ripples of disquiet are being felt everywhere in the province.

Support from allies

As the security situation deteriorated, the US-led NATO announced they would extend their missions in Afghanistan. There are 13,000 NATO troops in the country including 9,800 US. Foreign troops provide Afghan security forces help in training and air support. Top officials have promised not to abandon the country and repel incidents like the fall of Kunduz.

According to press reports, the US Army will deploy about 500 soldiers to Afghanistan for an assignment of up to nine months. They will also serve as advisors to Afghan national security forces. The soldiers will be deployed later this winter to join the 10th Mountain Division at Bagram Airfield.