Gloomy about the economy

The national unity government’s failure to rev up business has deepened gloom about the future.

Amir, a Kabul taxi-driver, recalls his “opulent” past. “My life used to be opulent,” he says. His earnings from driving a taxi went a long way in keeping his family in comfort.

The national unity government’s failure to rev up business has deepened gloom about the future.

Amir, a Kabul taxi-driver, recalls his “opulent” past. “My life used to be opulent,” he says. His earnings from driving a taxi went a long way in keeping his family in comfort. Now, he says, his daily earnings of 1,000 Afs (15 USD) are not enough for the family’s basic needs. “People also do not hire taxis. In fact, people hardly leave their homes because it is so expensive,” he observes.

Economic analyst Naqibullah says Afghans have been hit hard by the shrinking of foreign aid since 2013, a situation that has worsened with the spread of fighting, Taleban attacks and corruption.

“The situation has been bad since the start of the government (of national unity),” says Naqibullah.

Investment has declined, the budget deficit has widened, labour is migrating and the only things going up are corruption and unemployment.

Unemployment levels are between 25 and 35 percent of the working population. CSO or Central Statistics Organisation has announced unemployment levels are at 25 percent. The Afghanistan Labour Union states, “Some 4.5 million Afghans out of 12 million eligible to work are jobless.” Some other sources put joblessness at 35 percent. The World Food Programme (WFP) and World Bank estimate half the population lives under the poverty line.

No organisation – neither governmental nor non-governmental – has calculated the rate of inflation with any great accuracy. Experts are united in the opinion that a 6 percent growth rate would enable the government to claim some economic progress. This would mean that either the international community increases aid or the private sector invests one billion USD in the country. No one thinks the latter is anything but a dream in the present circumstances.

Empty promises

Afghanistan could be one of the most prosperous countries in the region only if the full potential of its location on the crossroads of Central and South Asia was fully realised. With its immense natural wealth, mining could further transform the economy. The leaders of the national unity government, who were presidential-rivals in the 2014 elections, had promised to develop agriculture.

These hopes, however, have been unrealised so far. The poor are only poorer. People complain they are being made to pay tax to the government, including on phone conversations.

Feroza whose husband went to Iran six years ago to find work and has not returned because he may never find work here, is incensed by the tax on mobile phone use. “Whenever I buy a mobile credit card to speak with my husband I pay 10 percent to the government treasury. I am most unhappy. Why should I pay tax to a government that has not been able to provide job opportunities for my husband and a tranquil life for my family and children?” she asks.

Ali Reza Husaini, a sociologist and lecturer at Gawharshad Institute of Higher Education in Kabul, believes as long as the government fails to improve the lives of people, they will remain alienated. The alienation could pose a big challenge to a  government that wishes to implement programmes for the benefit of people but finds itself unable to ensure full participation.

In such a situation, the government loses its validity, and people all faith in their rulers.

Qudratullah from Ghazni believes, “Everyone in big government organisations only think about themselves. Governance in the provinces has never been in the viewfinder of government leaders. Many parts of the country are out of the administrative control, and sometimes possession of the government.”