While prospects for peace talks between Taleban and Afghan government are bleak and differences persist between Taleban commanders, reports are circulating about the Afghan and Pakistani Taleban uniting to fight the war in Afghanistan.
An Oct 22 statement, which has been credited to Mohammad Khurasani, the spokesperson of Pakistani Taleban, has the latter promising to advance the war in coordination with fighters across the border. Together, he said, they would avenge the deaths of fighters killed by Afghan military forces in a direct challenge to all those who thought the Taleban leadership were no longer united.
The report has also confirmed that the Taleban have divided into three factions after the death of Mullah Omar. While the Quetta Council is with Mullah Yaqub, Mullah Akhtar Mohammad Mansoor, who claimed he was the successor of Mullah Omar, is the leader of the faction that has the support of Taleban commanders on the frontline. Tayyeb Agha, erstwhile political chief based in Qatar, and Mullah Beradar who was released from jail in Pakistan in 2013, lead the third faction. In the past, according to many Taleban watchers, Mullah Omar was undisputed leader despite the swings in fortune of the Taleban.
The media has been declared an enemy. The statements attributed to Khurasani make it plain that the Taleban perceives “all” media organsations as enemies whereas earlier, only two unidentified media organisations were targeted.
Impact on war
While alarm bells are ringing over the reported coming together of Taleban fighters on both sides of the Af-Pak border, there is equally considerable scepticism. How could the Afghan Taleban, riven with divisions over the leadership of Mullah Mansoor, have agreed to unite all together with their counterparts across the border?
Afghan military authorities claim to be not perturbed by the development. They maintain that it will not affect the current process of war as the Taleban whether they are Afghan, Pakistani or Chechen have been together for long and Afghan security forces are fighting them.
General Daulat Waziri, the Afghan Defence Ministry spokesperson, said the armed opponents of the Afghan government “fight against us under different names” but they are all supported by “one source”. He insists, “We were partial to peace and will remain partial to peace. We are not concerned about the enemy because we know they cannot take us on for even 10 days in fighting … The only concern is that the Afghan nation is being crushed in war in war.”
But military expert Jawed Kohistani was of the opinion that the government must take serious note and “prevent the coalition” of anti-government forces. “The formal announcement (of unity) would have new impact and change (the situation). Afghanistan can face new threats. The government should pressure the government in Pakistan to prevent the coalition,” he said.
Kohistani has also expressed concern that a likely “coalition” would result in its uniting with ISIS or fighters of the Islamic State.
The Afghan Taleban have not reacted to news of their joining hands with the Taleban in Pakistan. Political analyst Wahid Muzhda has said he thinks the published statement attributed to Khurasani was a fraud.
“The Afghan and Pakistani Taleban were united in the past and they are united now too, so where is the need to publish this kind of declaration? This is a meaningless declaration,” he has reiterated.
He questioned the Afghan Taleban’s silence. “When two parties decide to unite, they should both publicise the plan,” he said.
In this Muzhda may have a point because in 2007 when the Afghan Taleban announced that they were tying up with the Pakistani Taleban, the latter (some five factions) selected Baitullah Mehsoud as leader to fight independently. “If they both (Afghan and Pakistani Taleban) unite, the threat will be many times more to Afghanistan,” Muzhda now warned. Political analyst Mohammad Hasan Haqyar has echoed the fear of a possible joining together of the Taleban to fight against Afghan security forces.
Pakistani hand
There is an opinion that forces across the border may be behind the move to unite the two Taleban groups. According to Haqyar, “leaders of Islamic groups and mullahs cheat the (Pakistani) Taleban … they say to them that it is not necessary that war should take place in Pakistan, there are Americans in Afghanistan who should be defeated.”
Haqyar is of the opinion that the Pakistani Taleban leadership has told its fighters that the Afghan Taleban should be assisted and the war should be fought at one front since fighting in two places would not help get the best results. He rules out the possibility of all Pakistani Taleban factions joining the Afghan Taleban cause. He believes only those that are equipped and financed by the ISI, the secretive Pakistani military intelligence network, will. He alleged that Taleban factions have been created to counter the threat from India over the disputed territory of Kashmir.
Haqyar recalled that the Pakistani Taleban had sworn allegiance to Mullah Omar who they considered to be Amirul Mominin (the amir/king of Muslims), the leader of all Taleban in the world.
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