It is hard to miss a link between the timing of the announcement of Taleban leader Mullah Omar’s death and the peace talks brokered by Pakistan.
It is hard to miss a link between the timing of the announcement of Taleban leader Mullah Omar’s death and the peace talks brokered by Pakistan.
Just as the government was preparing for a second round of talks that seemingly had the approval of Mullah Omar – according to his annual Eid al-Fitr message that was published on the Taleban website on July 14 –Taleban confirmed on July 30 that he was dead.
Three weeks earlier, on July 7, Taleban representatives and members of the High Peace Council had met in the Murree Hills, above Islamabad, for talks on talks for peace, which were hailed as a breakthrough in the on-and-off attempts for the last 13 years to get the hard-line fighters to the negotiating table.
Hopes were riding high on Mullah Omar’s declaration that the talks were “legitimate”.
“If we look into our religious regulations, we can find that meetings and even peaceful interactions with the enemies is not prohibited,” he said in the statement. “Concurrently with armed jihad, political endeavours and peaceful pathways for achieving these sacred goals is a legitimate Islamic principle.”
Now news of his death has revealed deep divisions in the ranks of the Afghan fighters, and cast a shadow on the future of nascent talks.
The announcement of Mullah Akhtar Mansoor as the new chief was followed within days by the resignation of Sayed Tayeb Agha who was head of the Taleban’s political office in Doha, Qatar.
In a statement issued on Aug 3, Agha, the Taleban’s chief negotiator said, “I have decided to step down as head of the political office of the Islamic Emirate, because my political role has come to an end. I will not be part of any decision and statements of the Islamic Emirate Taliban.” He opposed the election of the new chief “outside Afghanistan” and said the new leader should have been elected from among Taleban fighters in the bunkers.
Trust factor
Fareed Mohmand, a political analyst, thinks Pakistani intelligence had a hand in appointing Mullah Omar’s successor “so that it can have more influence on talks with the Afghan government”. Pakistan’s intentions are generally viewed with deep suspicion here. Many consider the Taleban an arm of Pakistan, and executing its policies in Afghanistan. Civil society activist Aqela views the recent events as Pakistan “trying to gain more control of Taleban forces in Afghanistan”.
Intelligence sources told Killid that according to their information Mullah Omar never met with Taleban cadres, and even many leaders, after 2006 and it was Pakistani intelligence that commanded and managed the affairs of the Taleban including the decision to send individuals linked to the Quetta Shura for the Murree talks– a decision that was executed through Mullah Mansoor.
On Aug 1, the BBC reported that Taleban spokesman Mullah Abdul Manan Niazai said Mansoor’s appointment was against the Shariah. The Taleban Supreme Council, which was not consulted, would hold a meeting to elect a new leader. According to him, Mullah Omar had always insisted on building a consensus, and hence the selection of his successor should reflect the views of “mujahedin, religious authorities and those who had a role in establishing the Islamic Emirate”.
While Mullah Niazai denied reports that Mullah Omar’s family – his son and a brother – has announced their allegiance, Zabihullah Mujahid who has been speaking on behalf of the Taleban to the Afghan media for many years, has rejected news of differences among the Taleban.
However, two former Taleban commanders, Omar Khetab and Mullah Mansoor Dadullah, who set up another group called Mahaz Fedayee, according to reports, have accused Mullah Mansoor of killing Mullah Omar. He was poisoned by high-ranking Taleban officials, according to the group’s spokesperson Qari Hamza.
Tough talk
As the Taleban splinters, Mullah Mansoor has denied peace talks in Murree were between his group and the government, despite previous reports that he was involved.
“The movement will continue until the Islamic system rules,” Mansoor said at an allegiance ceremony, according to an audio-recording uploaded on a Taleban site. “This rumor among the enemies that a peace process is going on, it is the enemies’ propaganda.”
It could be intended to unite factions of the Taleban who are traditionally opposed to any move to talk to Kabul as long as foreign forces remain in the country.
The present situation is more worrying in the context of the recent emergence of a branch of the Islamic State (ISIS) called Daesh. Afghan and US officials worry fighters are being recruited from among disgruntled members of the Taleban.
Mullah Mansoor, then deputy leader of the Taleban, had sent an open letter to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in June offering support for their activities that take place under the flag of the Taleban.
Political analyst Ali Reza Rezayee thinks there is little chance of cooperation between the two. “The reality is that ISIS doesn’t have tribal, religious and a local base,” he says. “It cannot hope to gain with Mullah Omar’s death.”
Instead, according to Shah Husain, a journalist, “the divisions in the Taleban are a big opportunity for the Afghan government to try to open talks with factions that are for peace”. The opportunity should not be missed, he appeals.
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