Ahead of the second round of talks between the government and representatives of the Taleban, there are unsubstantiated reports in the media about the death of Mullah Omar.
Talks are likely to be held between the end of July or early August, according to sources in the High Peace Council. A likely call for ceasefire and a framework of demands by the two sides could be on the agenda.
Emayeel Qasemyara, a member of the council, considers the forthcoming round of talks a “test” of how far Taleban representatives are authorised to go in negotiations with the government.
Both sides have expressed satisfaction with progress in the first round of talks held on July 7 in the Murree Hills above Islamabad, the Pakistani capital.
Hopes are pinned on a breakthrough in halting hostilities, which would restore people’s faith in the government.
The deteriorating security situation in the country has eroded public support for the national unity government. Officials in the High Peace Council have said they would make a determined effort to persuade the Taleban to declare a ceasefire in order that people will trust the process.
Mawlawi Shahzada Shahed, peace council spokesperson, said participants at the Murree meeting had decided that building up trust was a priority. The call for a ceasefire, taking the Taleban off the black-list and providing them with an office were three major goals for the process of winning backing for the peace efforts.
“If there is no ceasefire, talks would not be trusted. We want to win the trust of both people and government,” according to Shahed.
Mohammad Reza Mirzayee, a civil society activist, speaks for tens of thousands of people. “No doubt the government is optimistic after the first round but the continuation of war shows that both sides don’t want to be defeated. We should wait for the (final) results of talks,” he says.
Habibullah Helmandi from Daikundi province believes any talk without a ceasefire would provide insurgent groups with daily means to flourish. He explains, “People would believe in talks only when they are not kidnapped on roads and the daily news of war and bomb blasts is not heard from the media.”
Leadership puzzle
Reports about the death of Mullah Omar come at a time when after years of fighting the Taleban are sitting down to talks with the government. The authority of those who participated in earlier formal and informal talks has never been confirmed by the different groups of Taleban. Now news of a likely vacuum at the top has sparked concern over who would be the real Taleban representative?
The Taleban are fractured, say political watchers. Shahed, spokesperson for the High Peace Council, says all Taleban groups would be represented in the forthcoming round of talks. Should there be an agreement on a ceasefire, it would be clear whether the participants indeed are the representatives of their groups.
Ahmad Sayidee, political observer, posted on Facebook that “serious differences” have come into existence among the Taleban. The absence of Mullah Omar has led supporters of Akhtar Mohammad Mansoor to try and appoint a successor. Simultaneously, Abdul Latif Mansoor and Mullah Abbas were trying to formalise their individual claims to Mullah Omar’s mantle. There was yet another group of Taleban led by Mawlawi Abdul Qayoom Zaker who has the support of Mullah Nurudin Turabi (minister for justice during the Taleban regime), Mullah Shirin and Mullah Nanai. This group is trying to make Mohammad Yaqub, the 26-year-old son of Mullah Omar, a graduate from a Karachi madrassa, the successor.
News about the death of Mullah Omar has come from Qari Hamza, spokesperson of a Taleban faction called Mahaz Fedayee Islami (devoted front of Islamic Emirate). He claimed Mullah Omar was killed by a fellow Taleb two years ago. The latest message from the mullah on the occasion of Eid al-Fitr was “not written by Mullah Omar, rather Pakistani intelligence has written it”, he insists. President Ashraf Ghani, in return, thanked the Taleban in his Eid message to the people.
There are reports that Pakistan has proposed new preconditions that make the Afghan peace process even shakier. Sayidee says, “Internal strife in the ranks of the Taleban could be a problem for the process.”
Laying preconditions
Both sides are expected to put their demands before the second round of peace talks. “… key issues would be propounded and a serious step for ceasefire would be taken. The Taleban would put forth demands including the amendment of the Constitution, immunity from prosecution while delegates of the government would insist on a ceasefire in order to win people’s trust,” says Shahed, the council’s spokesperson.
Taleban have always insisted on a complete withdrawal of foreign troops but the government has viewed the demand as unrealistic. Shahed reckons once there is an end to the war, international troops have no reason to stay. “We hope this time there will be lasting peace,” he adds.
Aziz Rafiaee, a civil society activist, is concerned about the government’s commitment to democracy. “What system would Afghanistan follow after the agreement with the Taleban?” he asks. He believes the government should draw “red lines” on some issues that are out of the purview of the Taleban.
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