The government has claimed there are hopeful signs of a likely breakthrough in efforts to talk to the Taleban. Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah said on Feb 23, on the heels of a visit by the Pakistan army chief General Raheel Sharif, that peace talks could begin soon. However, the Taleban have denied they are involved.
Military analysts think the emergence of affiliates of the Islamic State (ISIS) has changed the ground situation for the Taleban. General Atiqullah Baryalai, an expert on strategic issues, says the Taleban is under pressure with some of its leaders having joined ISIS. “Peace talks would not mean a change in military equation. I believe that war and negotiations would take place simultaneously,” he says, adding, “What the Taleban want through flow of talks would not be accepted by Afghan government.” He also said that if the bilateral talks advance without mediation from Pakistan and China, “this would be considerable progress as it means the insurgents have recognised our government”.
Once again there are voices advising caution. Maulana Fareed, a former MP from Sar-e Pol says Pakistan’s offer to talk to the Taleban may only be a political game. The fact is the Taleban have been weakened with the appearance of some leaders in a different political identity (read ISIS).
At present discussion here is more about the role of Pakistan than the principle of peace. There is anxiety about Islamabad’s intentions considering “the dark background of relations with Afghanistan,” says Mohammad Qarabaghi, a writer and journalist. “This has meant that relations with Pakistan did not improve in the last 13 years, and enmity only increased. Now the government of national unity is trying to break the ice at any cost, and strengthen Pakistan’s loyalty,” he says. Jihadists like Abdul Rasoul Sayaf are wary of the development. “Strategic change in relations with neighbouring and other countries without consultation with the nation and people is illegal,” he said recently at a public meeting in Kabul.
At what cost to Afghanistan?
Chiefly, the loss of assistance from India. Kabul’s decision to put on hold a request from the previous government to purchase arms from New Delhi and to send Afghan soldiers to Pakistan for military training is being seen as a sign that Pakistan wants to build closer cooperation with Kabul and exclude rival India.
However, Naweed Elham, a political analyst, is concerned that Islamabad may not stop at closer military relations. “No doubt that importance and loyalty of government of Pakistan is very vital and basic, and worth the cost of loss of India relations, but the concern is that Pakistan’s demands may not stop at this: it would request the recognition of the Durand Line,” he warns. In addition, Pakistan may influence Beijing’s relations with Kabul, like it did with the US and Britain. The situation would be that “Afghanistan has to pass from filter of Pakistan to get trust of China”, fears Elham.
Yet there is also optimism. The BBC reported Pakistan was under pressure and risked losing billions of dollars in US aid if it did not play a positive role in the peace process in Afghanistan. That country’s political and military leaders may have been forced to rethink policies with its neighbours considering the worsening security situation.
The hint of a possible deal with Pakistan and also Taleban has sparked concern among people about the loss of achievements like personal liberty and freedom. “People fear the loss of democratic values that the Taleban are against,” says Fatema Omed, a Kabul resident.
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