The NATO combat mission is over, and in just two years the remaining US troops will be withdrawn. Afghan security forces have a tough job on their hands against a resurgent Taleban.
In an interview with CBS, President Ashraf Ghani called for a review of the deadline in view of the threat to his government and the country. “Foreign countries are committed to prepare the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) from a training and equipping point of view, which they have not done,” he reminded the US.
In a last minute policy change last month, President Barack Obama, had upped the number of troops in Afghanistan to 13,000 from 9,800 announced in his May New Afghanistan Plan, and said the US military would continue to assist Afghan forces wherever US interests were threatened by the Taleban.
The Taleban has intensified attacks on government and civilian targets since the past year. Can the Afghan security forces counter them? “The security and defensive forces are the loyal sons of the people … People stand beside the security forces and express their support for the security forces,” President Ghani said at a ceremony to mark the formal withdrawal of NATO from the country.
Will Afghanistan become another Iraq? Political analysts do not seem to think so. Hamid Zazai, political expert, thinks there are two major differences: the armed opponents are not a major threat to the unity of the country; and, conflict is not the result of sectarian differences.
“National and international pressure can help improve the situation,” he says, “specially the latest round of talks between Pakistan and Afghanistan which could isolate the extremists.”
There is overwhelming public support for the ANSF. The results of a recent survey by The Asia Foundation shows the majority of people are still optimistic about the future since they believe the country has followed the “right route”. More than 9,200 people were polled for the yearly survey, from both rural and urban areas.
The foundation’s Shaheem Ahmad Kabuli said when interviewees were asked to give two examples of what they considered as the “right route” for nation-building, most pointed to education and rehabilitation.
Steady hike
The percentage of people fearful about the deteriorating security situation has increased this year to 34 percent from the previous year’s 29.8 percent. Security was identified as a concern for 65 percent of those polled, up from 59 percent in 2013. Concerns about security have been steadily rising since 2006. Faith in the ability of the national army remains a strong 85 percent. More than half of those polled believe the Afghan forces still need the support of external forces to secure the country.
Ekramudin Yawar, acting deputy minister of interior affairs, thinks if coordination was better, the security forces would be more successful. The Department of National Security needs to sharpen intelligence gathering. As a result of its efforts more than 800 Taleban were arrested, and suicide attack and other missions aborted.
Meanwhile, the Ministry of Defence has made plans to “crush” the opposition, according to the head of operation’s Afzal Aman. In his opinion, Afghan forces were strong, and the morale was high. “It does not worry us that the new year will be more challenging than the last. We are ready to safeguard our people and homeland,” he promised.
Public opinion is split between the optimists and pessimists. Faridullah Stanekzai, civil society activist, expects 2015 to be a “bloody year”. Khaled Khan, a lecturer at Nangarhar University, thinks the withdrawal of foreign forces has opened up space for talks to end the war.
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