The great waiting game is over, and President Hamid Karzai will be handing over power to a national unity government led by Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai and Abdullah Abdullah.
The great waiting game is over, and President Hamid Karzai will be handing over power to a national unity government led by Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai and Abdullah Abdullah.
The two who were rivals in a bitterly fought election have expressed satisfaction with the outcome of behind-the-scenes rounds of talks to seal the power-sharing pact between them.
Afghanistan’s western allies and neighbours in the region have signalled praise, holding out the promise of a renewed flow of aid, which had slowed to a trickle as the economic situation worsened and the government was paralysed by political crisis.
While the immediate reaction has been optimism, there is no hiding the ambiguities thrown up by the agreement. For instance the post of chief executive, which would later become prime minister, has not been clearly spelt out, and that could cause problems in the power sharing agreement.
The scepticism has found voice in independent and social media.
Mohammad Qarabaghi, a journalist and civil society activist, commented: “The reality is that democracy was metamorphosed in the election of year 2014 in a manner that no clear sign of it remains. Because the process was fraudulent from start to end we should ask how damaged democracy will guarantee and ensure the legality of coming political order?”
Ghulam Husain Nasiri, a member of parliament of the lower house, described the new president as “not elected through voting but (through) an agreement between the powerful”.
The two teams – Ashraf Ghani’s Change and Continuity and Abdullah Abdullah’s Reform and Unity – share the view that the coming political order is the result of the people’s vote and partnership.
Serving expedience
Waqef Haqimi, a member of Abdullah’s team, was optimistic the government would be stronger than any other in the history of the country. “The president as the main pivot of power and beside him the chief executive with millions of votes, have the required legality to serve the people and satisfy their needs through a coordinating structure.”
Haqimi, a civil society activist, agreed the national unity government was created out of expedience, and not by the votes of people. Hence it must continue on the basis of national expedience, he urged.
But Habiba Layeq, a Kabul resident, called the failure to announce the results of the election a betrayal of the people. “Nobody would be ready to vote in the future,” she said. Zarqa Yaftali has a counter opinion. “We cannot predict the future (whether or not people would vote). The agreement was a way to get out of the current political situation. Six months had passed. Ordinary people were very badly affected. Poverty had increased. There was only one way: the government of national unity.”
The agreement was signed by Ján Kubiš, head of the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) and James B Cunningham, US ambassador. The endorsement is being viewed as a clear sign of their backing and support. According to Abdul Ali Mohammadi, a member of the Ashraf team, the US and UN have guaranteed the commitment that the two presidential candidates had insisted on. Wakef Hakimi of the Unity and Change team shared this opinion.
Independent political watchers however are doubtful about the holding capacity of the agreement.
“When two electoral teams that were in serious rivalry, trading insults, now join together in a government, will they be able to forget the rivalry and stay as friends and not competitors?” wondered Kazema Mohaqeq, a lecturer in the private Gawharshad University. Pointing out ideological differences, Mohaqeq said, “It is seen that on one side are democrats and on the other the mujahedin. I think this difference has not been forgotten, and would make cooperation difficult.” In his opinion, “They would not accept each other.”
Other sticking points are the interests of an opposition, and the fate of tribal leaders who had vital roles in both the government and opposition.
Diluted opposition
Under the agreement, Abdullah’s team is set to play the responsible role of the opposition although no further details have been stated. Both teams have talked about an opposition that would cooperate and not critique the government.
Sceptics are voicing incredulity. Samia Elham, a civil society activist, said: “As an institution the opposition’s job is to ensure the government does its job. When the opposition has a stake in the government there would be more room for the mafia and the power of corrupt politicians to grow.”
Abdullah’s Reform and Unity team has been in the opposition for the last 13 years.
How would the agreement impact on the power of tribal leaders like Mohammad Mohaqeq, second deputy in the Abdullah team or powerful Balkh Governor Ata Mohammad Noor?
Deen Mohammad Jawed, a lecturer in Kateb University, observed tribalism would remain powerful as long as nationalism was weak in Afghanistan. He predicted that Mohaqeq would cosy up to Sarwar Danesh (also a Hazara), Ghani’s second vice president, to get privileges for their people.
Meanwhile the Balkh governor, who has thrown his weight behind the agreement, has written to the outgoing president. “Though I am not against the agreement … in heart I had a wish like millions of Afghans that the real will of the people should be preferred and ensured.”
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