The security situation has worsened with armed Taleban groups launching major attacks in recent months. The government reports “some provinces” are affected, though off the record a high-ranking officer told Killid there is war throughout the country.
According to information from the Ministry of Interior Affairs (MoI), Taleban threaten some 60-70 districts out of a total of 398 in the country.
Sidiq Sidiqi, the MoI spokesperson, said security forces were intent on restoring peace. “In total there are 60-70 districts that face attacks by Taleban who are trying their best to consolidate but we are fighting off the challenge.”
General Zaher Azimi said the districts under attacks were in Helmand, Badghis, Farah, Herat, Nangarhar, Nuristan, Kunar, Kunduz, Faryab and Ghor among other provinces “The enemy tried to win a breakthrough but they faced tough defeat. For years two or three districts in Helmand and one district in Nanghar have been outside the control of the government. Under the new military plan the districts would be recaptured,” the general was optimistic.
Meanwhile, a high-ranking Ministry of Defence (MoD) officer, who did not want his name to be revealed, said there was a war in all parts of the country except Panjsher and Bamyan provinces.
That together with the reported interference by Pakistan in Afghanistan’s affairs, the failure to sign the Bilateral Security Arrangement (BSA) with the US, and the lingering electoral process to find a successor to President Hamid Karzai that have weakened the government has emboldened the Taleban, according to analysts.
In his Eid message to the people President Karzai confirmed the violence has escalated during the elections. He asserted that large numbers of “terrorists” have illegally entered the country to carry out attacks with the help of Taleban and the Haqqani network.
The worsening security situation is also the result of political uncertainty. Colonel Shamsher Khan, who has retired from the Afghan National Army, said the more than five-long election process and rise in Taleban attacks were connected.
The Taleban see opportunity in the uncertain political situation, he said. “Hopes ran high that a new government would be sworn in after the two rounds of voting. Taleban were faced with defeat. But the differences that have cropped up between the two rival candidates have disappointed people, and made them fearful of the future. The Taleban feel encouraged to attack,” he said.
Nasrullah Stanekzai, a lecturer in Kabul University, thinks political uncertainty has had an impact on security forces. The future seems shakier to them, and they are less motivated, just as the Taleban have become more gung-ho.
Release backfires
Meanwhile, the government has been signing letters for the release of Taleban and political prisoners in Bagram and Pol-e-Charkhi prisons in an effort to bolster the peace process. But the released Taleban have not gone back to their homes. They have vanished in all likelihood to hideouts hidden away from Afghan and international intelligence agencies.
Mohammad Masoom Elham, a journalist and political analyst, said Taleban interred in prisons, far from being remorseful about their anti-national activities, hatch plans for revenge. Often the commandant of the area is shot dead by the newly released Taleban. “Why are prisoners released, and then they make a headache for us,” Elham asked rhetorically.
Dr Ruhullah Amin, a political analyst, observed that none of the released Taleban have supported the government. “When I say this I mean Taleban commanders, and not the Taleban who fill the ranks, and face poverty. Should the ground be prepared – jobs to reduce the frustration of people – particularly for the young people would not want war,” he asserted.
Police chief of Kunduz Ghulam Mustafa shared the example of a released Taleban commander who has returned to fighting. Mullah Salam who has led more than 2,500 troops in the current fighting in Kunduz was released from a Pakistani prison on the plea of Afghan authorities jail.
Taleban firepower
In 2014 the Afghan president banned NATO air strikes and night raids that cost many civilian lives. The two demands were also among the contentious conditions imposed on the US for signing the BSA.
While the civilian death toll has come down considerably, some security officials think it has been detrimental in the fight against the Taleban, and have intensified the scale of their attacks.
MoD spokesperson Zaher Azimi said that prior to 2013 the Taleban conducted attacks in small groups of between 15 and 25 men. His interpretation is that since the air strikes were called off the Taleban have become braver, and the attacks were larger. “You saw that 800 Taleban attacked in Helmand, while in Faryab, Kunar, Badakhshan and Kapisa there were hundreds,” he said.
A MoD official who was not identified was quoted by the German foreign news agency DPA saying, “The Taleban headed by Mullah Salam has captured ten posts (in Kunduz) within one month. Karzai had put a ban on air strikes but the minister of defence had to appeal to the NATO commander to defeat the armed opponents.”
In Taleban attacks in the countryside the fighters have generally withdrawn after clearing the area.
Colonel (retired) Mohammad Sarwar Niazai who has served in Helmand and Kandahar provinces, described air strikes as the “backbone” of an operation.
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