The Afghan government has two options: sign the Bilateral Security Arrangement (BSA) with the United States, or watch Washington pull out all troops by the end of 2014. Some sources consulted doubt US would leave.
The Afghan government has two options: sign the Bilateral Security Arrangement (BSA) with the United States, or watch Washington pull out all troops by the end of 2014. Some sources consulted doubt US would leave.
NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen has made it clear the deployment of a NATO-led mission to train, advise and assist the Afghan security forces from Jan 2015 hinges on the bilateral agreement between the US and Afghanistan. “I hope President (Hamid) Karzai will listen to that message of loya jirga,” he told journalists in Brussels, NATO headquarters, on Dec 3. A loya jirga convened by the president last month had endorsed the BSA but Karzai said the decision to sign might be put off till after the presidential polls next April. He has added new conditions for signing including the release of all Afghan prisoners from Guantanamo Bay, the infamous detention centre that US President Barack Obama promised to shut down, but has not, and an end to military operations affecting Afghan civilians.
War or peace
Political observers believe a pact or no pact with the US will make no difference to security in the country. “Peace and security can be ensured when there are means of peace,” says Sultan Mohammad Awrang, political expert. “Karzai has not taken effective steps for peace and national interests in Afghanistan over the last 12 years.”
Hajji Sayed Daud, political expert says, “The security issue cannot be solved in two or three months. Karzai wants to get approval from the US for his favoured candidate in the coming election.”
However, Wadeer Safi, lecturer at Kabul University, does not think it is correct to link the pact to presidential poll. “ It does not seem right that there is a connection between pact and poll. Karzai may have other concerns for not signing,” he thinks.
Meanwhile, the president has blamed NATO for a fuel crisis facing Afghan security forces, which NATO officials have denied. “There has been no stoppage in the delivery of requested fuel and we continue to process all orders as soon as they are received,” the NATO-led force said in a statement.
The deadlock over the pact has raised anxiety levels. Kabir Ranjbar, a lawyer, thinks the country, besieged by neighbours, needs a “strong partner”. “They have interfered in our affairs and exported terrorism. If the pact is signed we have a strong partner in the region to prevent interference. Not only does the US promise military cooperation it would assist in economic field as well.”
Daud is of the view that should the government postpone signing the pact “people would face problems”. In 2014 the country could be faced with “negative economic effects, capital flight, joblessness, and civil war”, he warns.
Second Iraq, perhaps
An oft-mentioned view is that Afghanistan could be faced with a situation prevailing in Iraq.
Many observers are calling for transparency to protect the interests of people when signing the pact. Abdul Satar Saadat, law expert, believes the Afghan government “should be very cautious in signing the security pact”.
Daud Sultanzoy, political expert, thinks the US may be exaggerating the “security interests” of Afghanistan in the pact. “America should know that it cannot keep the Afghan people busy under the name of terrorism.”
Foreign sources based in Kabul consider Washington would have no interest in leaving Afghanistan – concluding a 12-year intervention and its longest war – without a launching pad for its regional policy.
Hamidullah Farooqi, lecturer in the Economic Faculty of Kabul University, would like “national sovereignty and legal defense to be explained in the new agreement” to ensure there are no “ambiguities” in the pact for Afghanistan.
Fawzia Arzo from Kabul says if the government fails to take a decision on an issue that affects the country’s future the president should resign.
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