There is little optimism about the outcome of talks between President Hamid Karzai and Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif even though they were extended by a day.
There is little optimism about the outcome of talks between President Hamid Karzai and Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif even though they were extended by a day.On Aug 26, the president made his twentieth official visit to the Pakistani capital. Political analysts count relations between the two countries as a factor in pushing forward peace talks with the Taleban. But Islamabad’s flip-flop in relations with Kabul has always been a sore point.
Karzai has urged his Pakistani host to ensure his government plays a mediating role with the Taleban.
But Dr Zaheer Saadat, Member of Parliament (MP) from Panjsher, cannot see beyond Pakistan’s past record. “Experience has shown that Pakistan promises cooperation in diplomatic negotiations but it never remembers its commitments,” he says. Moreover, “these types of trips have not brought any change in the conditions for peace and stability and would not in the future too,” he concludes.
At a joint press conference on the first day of talks, the two leaders mentioned the problem of armed violence, and the lack of security for people.
Karzai gave a thumbs-up for the talks. “Both governments of Pakistan and Afghanistan are putting in their best efforts to advance their brotherly aims and friendly cooperation among the people of the two countries,” the president said.
Sharif promised to “strongly support” Afghanistan’s efforts to restore peace in the country.
Karzai responded by staying on in Islamabad for a second day – an indication that his talks were going well with the Pakistan prime minister. The two leaders were meeting for the first time since Sharif’s election in June.
Track record
Mir Ahmad Joyenda, a political observer, is sceptical of the outcome considering Pakistan’s poor track record in keeping promises. “Its actions are contrary to Afghan interests and (would) never be acceptable to the Afghan side,” he says.
Islamabad has not given up its aim of handing over a part of Afghanistan to the Taleban or installing a pro-Pakistan government.
A factor that could go in Afghanistan’s interests is the delicate issue of trade relations.
Mohammad Ismail Qasimyar, in charge of international relations in the Peace High Council says there are three reasons why Pakistan would like to diffuse tensions with its neighbour.
These are the current critical economic situation in Pakistan;the need to tilt the balance towards Islamabad and away from rival India, and the need for the Sharif government to show results on the ground.
Qasimyar warns it is not all easy going for the Pakistan government on Afghanistan particularly. It has to take the secretive Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) along in its decisions or the outcome can go against the political leadership, he explains. The Afghan government expects loyalty and cooperation from the ISI.
Shukria Barakzai, MP fromKabul, says she does not have any “expectations” after Karzai’s visit to Pakistan. “We all know that Pakistan is dominated by the military and the military always tries to protect its interests; the continuation of war and rebellion in Afghanistan is one of the gains of Pakistan. Beside this the military always wants to share political power so I am not optimistic,” she asserts.
In addition she feels that since Pakistan has not revealed its strategy regarding Afghanistan “we should not expect positive results from this trip”.
Long term view
Political analyst Ahmad Saeedi has a different opinion. He thinks it is unreasonable to expect Islamabad to make bold moves when Karzai is due to step down as president in roughly eight months. Afghanistan is due to go to the polls to elect a new president next year. Under the Constitution the president cannot seek a third term.
Saeedi thinks Islamabad cannot at all be pleased with the growing closeness between Kabul and New Delhi. The 2nd Vice President KarimKhaliliwas in the Indian capital last week accompanied by Afghan army chief General Sher Mohammad Karimi. Kabul wants Indian assistance in providing helicopters and training of Afghan pilots.
Saeedibelieves Pakistan will want to secure its long-term interests in Afghanistan, and not compromise it by aligning too closely with the lame duck Karzai government.
Abdul Rashid Aryan, political expert, believes the peace process in Afghanistan is not in the hands of Afghans political leaders. It depends on the inclination of Pakistani authorities to allow the peace process to proceed. He is not hopeful of the prospects since honest cooperation between Kabul and Islamabad is doubtful, he says.
Pakistan has been “pretending” cooperation under international pressure, he alleges.
For some time the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has considered the establishment of trade and economic links with neighbours in the region as a means of strengthening cooperation.
Zaheer Saadat, MP,adds to this argument. He would like the government to have an “exact and codified programme” for negotiations. “We can increase pressure on Pakistan and counter terrorism to ensure peace by having a strategic programme,” he says. In addition the international community should put pressure on Pakistan – economic and political pressure – to assist the Afghan peace process, and show results on the ground, he adds.
