The Taleban have threatened the spring offensive – which is underway – will be the final war in Afghanistan. But security agencies are not unduly worried.
The Taleban have threatened the spring offensive – which is underway – will be the final war in Afghanistan. But security agencies are not unduly worried.Announcing the start of its spring operation called “Khalid bin Walid”, the Taleban has promised to up attacks on ISAF (International Security Assistance Forces) installations.
An announcement posted on the Taleban website, Voice of Jihad, has warned of the use of “special military tactics” and “collective martyrdom operations”, which is a reference to suicide assaults. Also, there will be more “insider attacks” – the green on blue attacks in which Afghan security forces attack ISAF personnel. Last year, there were 44 such attacks. It accounted for an estimated 15 percent of foreign troop deaths, according to the 2012 annual UNAMA report released on Feb 19 on the ‘Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict’.
The spring offensive was launched on April 28 as promised. The date had been deliberately chosen to mark the day on which mujahedin rebels, bankrolled by the US, ousted the communist government of Dr Najibullah in 1992. The Taleban website considered it a “good omen” that the operation was launched on April 28.
Civilians have been urged to stay away from NATO and ISAF installations, in case suicide bombers target these. “We request all our countrymen to keep away from the bases of foreign invaders and restrain from assisting the foreigners,” the website states.
Fraidoon, a resident of Kabul, is dismissive of the Taleban’s appeal to civilians. He says they cannot be trusted; so many innocent people have been killed in Taleban assaults including suicide attacks. There is no one to counter them, he laments.
Meanwhile, government authorities are dismissive of Taleban threats. Dawlat Waziri, deputy spokesperson for the Defence Ministry, said, “The operation (Khalid bin Walid) has a propaganda aspect. It is (aimed as much) to confuse and worry the public.”
Waziri was certain the Taleban did not have the ability to take on Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) in face-to-face combat.
“Afghan security forces are more powerful than last year. (However) there is a possibility that the Taleban will resort to suicide attacks and landmines – which main and kill civilians,” he said.
Counter operation
The defence ministry spokesperson said Afghan security forces have launched an operation called Oqab (eagle) to take on the Taleban. He said the operation has been planned to cover those areas where the Taleban have strengthened their hold. Ninety percent of the country is under the control of the Afghan army and police, he insisted.
Concern about security is growing in the National Assembly (upper House).
Senators Hedayatullah Rehayi and Belqis Roshan have blamed Pakistani intelligence agencies for creating insecurity in the country. Both felt the support made the Taleban “brave” and enabled them to take advantage of the inefficiency of the government and security agencies.
Member of Parliament (MP) from the restive Faryab province Dr Naqibullah Fayeq has expressed fears the spring offensive could worsen insurgency in his province. “After the winter break (lull in fighting because of the extreme cold in the mountains), a new chapter of insecurity has begun. Nearly one hundred security forces have died in the attacks and counter-attacks in Faryab,” Fayeq told Killid.
The Ministry of Interior is unruffled, and claiming that although the armed fighters have the support of intelligence agencies in Afghanistan’s neighbourhood, they have failed in the battle against Afghan security forces.
Spokesperson Sidiq Sidiqi said, “The Afghan security forces have become stronger every passing year.”
He urged the government’s critics to stop criticising the ANSF because it could be demoralising. “It (criticism) would be beneficial only to armed opponents,” he said.
By end 2014 the US-led NATO forces in Afghanistan would have handed over security duties on the frontline to Afghan troops. NATO commander General Joseph F. Dunford has promised that in 2013 his men together with Afghan troops would be a formidable force of 350,000 men against the Taleban.
Meanwhile, reports by civil society organisations say there has been an increase of 47 percent in armed attacks in the first three months of the current year compared to the same period in 2012. But the Ministry of Interior has dismissed the report.
Winning strategy
Political commentators think the Taleban can be successfully fought if the political leadership was strong-willed and serious about building the Afghan nation.
Ali Buniadi, a political analyst and journalist, believes decision makers could fashion the course of history, and not leave it in the hands of the armed opponents. “Political and military intervention can change the destiny of the Afghan government and nation,” he told Killid.
Retired army officer and military expert, Jawed Kohistani, is sceptical about the government and military’s ability to fight against an armed opponent. “Administrative corruption and lack of law and order weaken the ability of security forces,” he advised.
In addition, the lack of equipment and training has weakened the Afghan security forces. The rising rate of attrition reveals the low level of preparedness of the security forces, he said.
Commander of 111 Army Corps, Major General Qadam Shah Shahim, says the number of troops on the ground is adequate. The numbers will reduce with the withdrawal of NATO.
