Western fears of civil war are growing ahead of the pullout of international troops in 2014. However, the situation on the ground is not comparable to either 1988 when the Soviets withdrew from Afghanistan, or the coming to power of the mujahedin in 1992
Western fears of civil war are growing ahead of the pullout of international troops in 2014. However, the situation on the ground is not comparable to either 1988 when the Soviets withdrew from Afghanistan, or the coming to power of the mujahedin in 1992, when the country was plunged into civil war. Lal Aqa Shirin and Esmat Mayar investigate.British Defence Secretary, Philip Hammond, speaking to BBC Radio 4, has described the future of Afghanistan as uncertain. He was reacting to a cross-party British parliamentary defence committee’s warning that Afghanistan could descend into civil war within a few years.
Hammond said: “I completely accept nobody can say with certainty what the future for Afghanistan will be, but what I can say is that the future of Afghanistan will have to be determined by the Afghan people.”
Nearly everyone Killid spoke to about the British defence secretary’s bleak prognosis of Afghanistan’s future does not share his opinion.
Retired Colonel Mohammad Sarwar Niazai says the “situation is different” to what it was in the early 1990s. When the Soviets pulled out leaving the Najibullah government without support, it presented an opportunity for the mujahedin to seize power. “No one can get the (Hamid Karzai) government out forcibly,” he told Killid.
According to Ghulam Jailani Zwak, head of the Afghan Analytical and Advisory Centre, some countries in the West were whipping up the bogey of civil war to maintain their military presence in Afghanistan. “Their big goal is to create fear in Afghanistan,” he insists. He recalls the prevailing uncertainty when the draft Afghan-US strategic treaty was referred to Parliament for its consent. Rumours swirled – “prepared by expatriates as well as the western media” – about chaos in the wake of the transfer. Those predicting chaos said, “those who are against the treaty (Afghan-US pact) were servants of Pakistan and Iran”, says Zwak.
He sees no substance in predictions of chaos after 2014. “The current conditions are not what can pave the way for civil war. The West is purposely trying to build up fears,” he says.
Self interest
Some political observers believe the western propaganda about the likelihood of another round of civil war in Afghanistan was more to serve their own strategic interests.
Abdul Ghafoor Lewal the head of Regional Studies Center sees the fear as a deliberate strategy to “change the mentality of the Afghan government and public” to be able to get “their” way. He advises the government to beware of western propaganda. “The government must be wise and prudent and comprehend always the political situation. So by this it can protect itself from the machinations of the West.”
Meanwhile, Major General Rahmatullah Raufi, former commander of Paktia Army Corps and erstwhile governor of Kandahar, dismisses the fears of war. The current situation is not like when seven jihads parties (mujahedin) armed and aided by the US came together to overthrow the communist Najibullah government in 1992, he observes. “Now Afghans are united, wise and careful to others’ gossip,” he told Killid.
In his opinion while foreign troops have stayed 11 years in Afghanistan, and know the Afghans better as a result, Afghans also have closely studied the policies of the foreign powers and the governments in the region, and know just what they want in Afghanistan.
Baseless charges
Veterans of past wars in Afghanistan see no basis for an escalation of conflict after the withdrawal of US and other NATO troops from their frontline positions.
Daud Kalakani, Member of Parliament (MP) – a former jihadi commander who fought against the Soviets – rules out the possibility of civil war after 2014. “It is not at all possible that civil war will happen in Afghanistan after 2014,” he asserts.
According to Kalakani, there is no comparison in the situation on the ground between Afghanistan in the 1980s and at present. He points to a strong civil society that may not be pliant any more. “Now the political knowledge of Afghan people has grown a lot. There are thousands of graduate from the universities,” he says.
The Afghan government has chosen to ignore the remarks made by the British cross-party parliamentary defence committee.
Deputy spokesman of the Defence Ministry, Siamak Herawi, said the international players in Afghanistan have their own views. “But what is the real situation – what Afghans know are totally contrary,” he declares.
“It is true that the year 2014 is a year of change but we believe strongly that the change might be positive not negative,” he told Killid. “Afghans themselves would have the responsibility of all affairs. Afghanistan would develop more by Afghans’ hands.”
The government has the support of AIHRC (Afghanistan Independent Human Rights Commission). Shamasullah Ahmadzai, head of the Kabul regional office, said Afghan forces have the ability to prevent any civil war. “But they should be equipped,” he adds. The responsibility has been put back in the hands of those who started the present war in Afghanistan.
