The Taleban have been insisting they will not talk to the government because of the presence of international troops in the country. With UN Special Representative Jan Kubis giving his word that no foreign soldier will remain in Afghanistan after 2014
The Taleban have been insisting they will not talk to the government because of the presence of international troops in the country. With UN Special Representative Jan Kubis giving his word that no foreign soldier will remain in Afghanistan after 2014, what next for the Taleban? Lal Aqa Shirin investigates.For the last 11 years the Taleban have been at war for various reasons including over the presence of foreign troops. Gradually those reasons are being eliminated. On Mar 27, Kubis urged the Taleban to put down their guns, and talk to the government since ISAF (International Security Assistance Force) was due to complete its pullout by the end of 2014. “We welcome talks between the Afghan government and Taleban,” he said. The UN, he said, would cooperate with the Peace High Council, and civil society to ensure there would be peace in Afghanistan after 2014.
Kubis also urged Afghans to participate in the presidential election next year, and choose their own destiny. “The presidential elections would be led by Afghans themselves. Plans have been made to prevent disruption, and we would be supervising the election,” he clarified.
What is the Taleban’s reaction to the peace overture?
Taleban spokespersons have shown no signs of trusting the government or international forces. The mistrust is evident in statements by Zabihullah Mujahid, one of the spokespersons. In a phone interview with Killid he repeated that the exit of foreign soldiers was their main condition for ending the war.
“On the one hand foreign forces speak about exit and on the other hand their efforts are going on for signing the (security) treaties. In case they exit and we get the assurance then we would decide (on peace negotiations),” he told Killid.
Laying conditions
The Taleban’s representatives at the Paris conference on Afghanistan last December had insisted on the exit of foreign troops as a precondition for their joining peace talks with the government. “It is necessary that the independence of Afghanistan is restored and its occupation should be ended,” according to their declaration.
They also laid down the demand of rewriting of the Constitution to “clean (it) of anti-Islamic, anti-national and anti-cultural principles”.
Political analysts are divided over whether the Taleban would come around to talking to the government.
Ghulam Jailani Zwak, head of the Afghan Analytical and Advisory Centre, has challenged UN Special Representative Kubis’s statement on the withdrawal of all foreign soldiers by end-2014. “They (read US) are thinking about retaining a presence in Afghanistan… Sometimes they say that 20,000 troops will be kept in Afghanistan and other times they say there would be 11,000 troops. The presence would be not only military. It would be political and economic presence,” Zwak told Killid.
According to him, apart from the US there were 10 other countries that were looking to maintain a presence in Afghanistan after 2014, but he did not identify them. As a result the Taleban’s precondition of troop withdrawal as a condition for talks would not be met, he believes.
The Taleban have two options – war or peace, Zwak asserts. If they want peace they would have to accept the existence of US bases in Afghanistan. “Continuing war is the second option,” he says.
Hopeful signs
Zwak thinks chances of the Taleban suing for peace would be more remote should the international forces leave. “They would try to capture power instead of striking a peace pact with the government,” he says. Yet, he believes there are signs a “big group” of Taleban are ready to participate in talks. Their position opened up when the Taleban started laying down conditions for talks and opened a political office in Qatar, he feels.
Writer and journalist Mohammad Nasim Lalahand sees the transfer of the detention centre in Bagram to Afghan authorities last month and the release of 26 Taliban leaders in Pakistani prisons as the most positive steps on the road to peace. However, the Taleban are yet to show their commitment, he added.
The release of prisoners was one of their conditions, he says. “They were insisting their prisoners should be released. That was done. Also Bagram was handed over to Afghanistan. It is possible that more prisoners are released. These actions are a display of the good intentions of Afghan government and international community. Now the question is what is the intention of Taleban? They have not come forward even one step,” says Lalahand.
The Taleban, he underlines, is independent and not under the yoke of Pakistan. Lalahand rationalises that the Taleban has a stake in pursuing peace. “I think if the Taliban want the foreign troops to leave Afghanistan they should join the peace dialogue. Otherwise their war would cause the international forces to stay on for years in Afghanistan.”
Political observers think the Taleban should join the political process in time for presidential elections, which are scheduled for next year. If not they may have to wait for at least five more years, says Mohammad Sarwar Niazai, political and military analyst, “This would be a lengthy wait,” he observes. “The Taleban could become tired. The foreign forces are leaving, the Taleban also know they are. They should join the peace process before 2014,. This is beneficial and for the welfare of all (Afghans),” he adds.
