Afghanistan has been elevated to the status of an observer at the annual meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). Does this signal a deepening of relations with the country?
Afghanistan has been elevated to the status of an observer at the annual meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). Does this signal a deepening of relations with the country?Afghanistan’s hard lobbying has paid off. At the summit meeting of the SCO in early June in Beijing, President Hamid Karzai had the satisfaction of joining the ranks of his neighbours, Iran, Pakistan and India as an observer. New entrant Turkey has joined the SCO as a dialogue partner.
A joint declaration issued by the presidents of the six member countries – China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan – said they supported the efforts of an independent and peaceful Afghanistan. The grouping has promised to act jointly against extremism in the region.
President Karzai told his host Chinese President Hu Jintao that he hoped to sign a strategic cooperation treaty with China.
Abdul Ghafour Lewal, head of the Regional Studies Centre, believes it is logical that Afghanistan should seek a closer relationship with its eastern neighbours. The SCO is seen as a counterbalance to NATO. With the US and its western allies planning to withdraw from active involvement in Afghan security by 2014, the time seems right for the strengthening of relations with the Shanghai group, he thinks. “As long as the western countries have a presence in Afghanistan, the SOC will play a junior role,” Lewal reasons. “If the SOC was to focus on kickstarting the economy and focusing on security it can have tremendous benefits for Afghanistan,” he says. China’s growing interest in Afghanistan could be used as a lever to pressure Pakistan to stop destabilising the country, he thinks.
However, Lewal has a warning: Afghanistan’s growing closeness to the SOC and its member countries could boomerang on relations with its western allies. He advises the government to take the US and the West into confidence so there is no long-term damage to the close bonds with Afghanistan.
Bridging regions
Waheed Muzhda, a member of the Afghan Research and Consulting Centre, views Afghanistan’s elevation to the status of an observer in the SCO as a major achievement. He thinks Afghanistan is gradually regaining its former position in the region, and transforming into an important, strategic ally. “Finally the countries in the region agree that Afghanistan should play its original role which is the role of a connecting bridge between central Asia and southern Asia,” he says.
Muzhda mentions the meeting between the head of a Chinese oil and gas company with Karzai on the sidelines of the SCO meeting in Beijing as an example “China wants to import oil from central Asia through Afghanistan in return for which Afghanistan has become an observer,” he reasons.
Moreover, he thinks, the more countries in the region invest in mines and in infrastructure in Afghanistan, the more benefits accrue to Afghanistan. “Countries with trade and economic benefits would never fight,” he believes.
Meanwhile, ordinary Afghans have mixed views. Mohammad Ali Reza, 33, from Ghazni province says that Iran and Pakistan may henceforth stop meddling as a result of pressure from Russia and China. “We will move towards stability,” he predicts. He also believes that as investment by China, Iran, Pakistan and Russia increase their commitment to stability would strengthen.
Zmarai, 38, a resident of Paktia, thinks Afghanistan may be unnecessarily provoking the US by deepening bonds with China. When China won the contract for the Logar copper mine the US reacted adversely saying, “we make the sacrifices and others get the contracts,” he recalled.
