With Afghanistan on the threshold of starting its withdrawal of US military forces, is the Afghan National Army ready to take on the security responsibilities of fighting against the armed insurgents?
With Afghanistan on the threshold of starting its withdrawal of US military forces, is the Afghan National Army ready to take on the security responsibilities of fighting against the armed insurgents? The question is one of great concern to Afghans who have lived through many decades of insecurity and war.“Right now, in spite of foreign troops and their role in military operations, in most of the provinces movement is impossible,” says Mohammad Nazari who is employed in one of the ministries in Kabul. Nazari says he has not even been able to visit his family who live close to the national capital, in the Qarabagh District of Ghazni province, for the last four months. “I fear that armed insurgents may take my life”.
Analysts say that though people are unhappy with the civilian casualties caused by international forces, they are also concerned that the security situation may deteriorate after the withdrawal of the troops. One such person is Fazlullah Mujaddadi, former MP and a political expert who feels Afghan people are currently caught between the devil and the deep sea. On the one hand is the armed opposition which does not abide by any laws and on the other are the arrogant international troops who also carry on their operations regardless of the law, he says. Transfer of responsibility to Afghan forces and the withdrawal of international forces from villages and cities would, however, lead to a feeling of freedom, he said.
Many analysts feel that the national army and other security organisations of Afghanistan can be effective if they are properly trained and equipped. The way in which the security transition is implemented would also have an important impact on the situation. Most experts emphasize that the foreign troop withdrawal should be gradual with simultaneous work on strengthening and equipping security forces in Afghanistan.
U.S. electoral compulsions
The troop drawdown is expected to begin in July with the U.S. beginning the thinning down of its troops from the current deployment of 100,000, though the exact number which will be withdrawn remains a cause of speculation. Recently some of the American media have reported that the White House is considering a larger withdrawal than originally planned, because of the increasing costs of the war and the recent achievement in the killing of Osama bin Laden. During a recent trip to Germany Obama said that the Taliban backbone had been broken with the death of Osama bin Laden. Many Afghan analysts however feel that Obama’s plans and pronouncements have more to do with domestic electoral compulsions than the situation on the ground in Afghanistan.
“While the security situation in Afghanistan has become worse, Obama is making claims of progress” says Wasiq Hussaini, a professor in Kabul University. Withdrawal of U.S troops was linked to the aim of changing the public mood in the U.S. he felt. Fewer U.S. troops would mean the growing unpopularity of the war would slow down and the rate of casualty of troops would also decrease. As a result, Obama would have a greater chance of winning the election. Military analysts are of the opinion that the process of transferring security responsibility to the Afghans should be gradual. Noorul Haq Ulomi, a military expert says: “Withdrawal of ten thousand non-combat US troops would not impact on the situation. But withdrawal of more than this, including troops that are engaged in the frontline combat would have an impact. Considering the fact that Afghan military forces have shortcomings and weaknesses, there would be negative consequences”.
Jaweed Kohistani, a military analyst also says that withdrawal of foreign forces from Afghanistan should be gradual. The U.S. should withdraw between 2,000 to 5,000 troops, he says, expressing the opinion that anything more would lead to further assaults by armed insurgents.
Permanent presence necessary?
According to Ulomi, because of the weaknesses in Afghanistan, Afghan authorities also don’t want the complete withdrawal of foreign troops from Afghanistan and a number of these troops would remain here beyond 2014 for deployment in the US permanent military bases.
Ulomi says that though the enemy is not very powerful, it makes use of existing gaps due to weaknesses in security forces. Once regions are cleared of the presence of foreign troops, transparent governance needs to be established in those areas in order to gain trust of the people.
A number of MPs say that the security situation in Afghanistan has worsened compared with the last year and that the current situation is not conducive to withdrawal of foreign forces. MPs Sayeed Ali Kazimi and Sher Wali Wardak emphasise the need for self reliance of Afghan security forces and the need to build their capacity as well as self-motivation.
Based on the agreement between NATO and the Afghan government, the international military forces are expected to start the drawdown in July 2011, and by 2014 all security responsibility would be transferred to the Afghan security forces. Gen. Mohammad Zahir Azimi, the spokesman of the Ministry of Defence says that preparations for taking over security responsibility have been completed.
He said that an 18-month military operation has been started throughout Afghanistan, and one of its objectives is to counter the insurgents in the provinces in which security responsibility transfer has started.
Insurgent response
Meanwhile, in the last few weeks insurgents have launched their operations in those provinces in which the transition is slated to begin, an example being the murder of the head of the Bamiyan provincial council. Lutfullah Mashal, spokesman of the National Security Directorate, the country’s intelligence agency says insurgents would like to sabotage security of the transition areas.
Infiltration and sabotage within Afghan national forces have been a major source of concern in recent months with several high profile attacks being carried out in highly secure defence and security installations. While going ahead with the drawdown of troops, international forces are attempting to strengthen the Afghan National Forces by deploying counter intelligence operatives who will scrutinise the induction of new personnel screening them for possible links to the insurgency. The intelligence personnel will also tighten the recruitment and training procedures, to identify those who are vulnerable to extremism or extremist ideology. David Simons, a spokesman for the NATO Training Mission in Afghanistan said: “Some of these specialists have already arrived in Afghanistan and the rest are expected to arrive soon”.
Analysts underscore that ANA would be able to succeed only when the training and equipping is supported by the international community.
